- German elections: Anthony Wells, it would appear, is my bitch. Hurrah! Check out his newly updated German election polls info, and his sage advice and analysis:
"The figures to watch on the German polls aren't the gap between the CDU/CSU and the SDP, but the sum of the CDU/CSU and FDP figures - or more specifically, if they are over 50%.Top work, Mr Wells!
"A couple of months ago they were well above 50%. August has been a bit dicey, with the combined figure often falling to 49%. Once parties that fall below the 5% threshold are excluded, 49% would probably be enough to scrape a meagre majority for the CDU/CSU+FDP, but it's too close for any real comfort. The most recent two polls however have shown the CDU/CSU+FDP back over the 50% mark.
"On the left, while the SDP have gained some support - recent polls have them at 30% when a month or so ago they were marooned around the 26-27% mark - this is mostly at the expense of the new Left party, who seem to have peaked at the end of last month when they were regularly hitting 12%. Now they are are 10% or lower."