Monday, January 17, 2005

The CIA's verdict on the EU

Heh - top-notch stuff from EU-Serf, following news that the CIA reckons the EU's economy can't last more than another 15 years.

Yeah, because the US economy's doing brilliantly, isn't it?

8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The current EU welfare state is unsustainable"

May be. But then we're not alone:

They should listen to their own president:

Bush warns of US pension crisis
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4178453.stm

--
Armin
http://www.ministryofpropaganda.co.uk/

1/17/2005 01:08:00 pm  
Blogger Guy said...

The EU is not exacly flourishing, that much is true. Yet I cannot help but wonder how much of that predicted European demise is wishful thinking, a slightly exaggerated self-serving meme designed to function as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Nevertheless, we should take the warning seriously and not engage too much in a US versus EU discussion. Competition from China and Brazil only confirms the need for Europeans to cooperate as a Union and adapt to a different, and difficult, future. "L'Union fait la force". Let's leave the "L'Union fait la farce" meme to the US and, alas, also some of the Brits.

1/17/2005 01:36:00 pm  
Blogger Nosemonkey said...

Indeed. And as has been pointed out on here, if America's economy goes tits-up, Europe could be in for a tough time as well. Anyone remember the Great Depression?

Perhaps the CIA's warning is because they know the full extent of the economic problems in the US and how that's likely to impact over here. The world is due another major crash after all, and Bush seems to be doing his best to act as the catalyst...

1/17/2005 03:47:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would like you to explain to me how the Euro will possibly work with one interest rate for such a large and economically different area.

As is already happening, the current ECB rate is wrong for the majority, creating slower growth in some areas, unstable booms in others, and stagnation in others. Yet nothing can be done as what will help one nation will damage another. The only option national governments have is to hugely increase taxes, or greatly cut them, depending on how the Euro affects them. Either way it's a disaster, sky high taxes, or cut back services. When we should be making our economies more flexible to global and national trends the Euro-dream is creating a rigid and slow economy.

A German friend, who was pro-Euro, and now hates it, related it to me as this; "it's like trying to drive a huge lorry around a tight downhill curve on mountain road, you either slow right down or fall off, and maybe both".

1/17/2005 05:41:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

>> would like you to explain to me how the Euro will possibly work with one interest rate for such a large and economically different area

Well, the Dollar seems to work in the US, which is a "large and economically different area". The US has regions booming as well as regions in a slump. It has deprived regions as well as highly prosperous regions, so where's the difference?

Or in other words, central bank rates are not the only factor influencing an economy and how it develops. Exchange rate risks have been eliminated within the Euro zone, which will make integration much easier and over time lead to cost savings (also on transaction costs). Workforce education is another important factor, in particular in the "knowledge economy". Guess why Ireland has been so successful the last few years?

And finally, if you argue that the ECB rate is wrong for different parts of the Eurozone, shouldn't we expand the same argument to the various parts of the UK? The interest rates for the UK might be too low for London but too high for Aberdeenshire. Nobody seems to have a problem with that and argues that we need different rates.

In summary: Interest rates are overrated.

--
Armin
http://www.ministryofpropaganda.co.uk/

1/17/2005 06:42:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am italian, writing from Italy.
Is this a blog where the reasons cause Europe would be better are stated always taking as paragon the Usa? You look like one of those anti Usa propaganda guys from Al-Jazeerah who to state the alleged truth of their rantings bring forth as evidence Holliwood movies: the CIA is behind everything, "haven't you seen the Manchurian candidate?".

You're comical. Your sense of inferiority towards the Usa feedbacks on itself. Good luck.

1/18/2005 02:06:00 am  
Blogger ken said...

I feel like commenting on the last post but I am lost for words would you belive.

1/18/2005 02:30:00 am  
Blogger Nosemonkey said...

1st anonymous chappie - I think Armin has covered most of the points necessary.

However, for future reference - when it comes to ths site the "pro-European" bit in the strapline doesn't necessarily mean "rabidly, uncritically pro-European". In fact, I think you'll find very, very few supporters of the EU project who do not recognise that it has its flaws - some of them extremely serious. For the record, I am of the opinion that they launched the single currency far too soon. The fact it has been doing as well as it has amazes me - I was fairly convinced it would have collapsed utterly by now. I am, however, very glad that it hasn't.

2nd anonymous chappie - To answer your first question as simply as possible: No.

For a longer answer - this is a site focussing on current affairs and politics with a European slant. This particular post was a comment on a news story which relates, as I'm sure you'll agree, to that central theme. Read the rest of the site, you'll see there is a vague obsession with the US, but an obsession born of admiration. There's a certain amount of exasperation as well, undoubtedly, as I am not much of a fan of President Bush, but on the whole I, and the other contributors to Europhobia, are all big fans of the place. I'll spare you the "some of my best friends are American" thing for now...

Methinks you might have misinterpreted somewhat.

1/18/2005 10:27:00 am  

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