Friday, December 03, 2004

Ukraine re-vote gets go-ahead

Via Tulipgirl, it sounds like the right result seems to have been achieved:

The Supreme Court has ruled that:
1. The election from November 21 is invalid.
2. There will be another run-off election, between Yushchenko and Yanukovich.
3. The election will be held before the end of December.


Good. I was getting worried again.

Let's just hope that they can ensure that no dodgy tactics come into play again. A vast fleet of international observers will be vital - preferably from impartial countries (i.e. not the US, EU or Russia). How about Japanese election-watchers? That'd do the trick.

Update: The vote will be before the 26th.

Oh, and it seems Volodymyr Campaign was first with the news.

abdymok (as it is now) has a transcript of the voting laws.

Some reactions from the Bloggosphere:

SueAndNotU: "Fuck. Ukraine elections to be held on Dec. 26. One day after Christmas. Alright, what do I do? Family, or Ukraine?"

Foreign Notes: "I think this opinion will give the court a stature that it did not have. Good for them. I might have tried to do more but I am not in their shoes. What they did do though was very, very good for democracy, for their court and for the government in the end... I read that there are members of the Court from all over Ukraine. If true, that will make it hard to argue that this is an East/West issue."

LoboWalk: "Yes, this is very good but there are reports that secret notes were passed to Parliament from the Court concerning the ruling... Also there are still questions as to any procedural changes that would take place in the re-vote; most notably concerning the issue of absentee balloting... Either way one can hardly blame the Ukrainian people for the celebratory mood."

The Argus: "Uzbekistan will undergo a process resembling an election on the 26th as well. I wonder if that creates any kind of problem for OSCE monitoring. Well, we all know that BHHRG won’t be able to be in two places at once that day…"

Ukraine, Russia, Europe, The US, Oh My!: "There are... rumors that Yanukovych will withdraw. If that is the case, and if he withdraws before the 16th, Yuschenko's opponent will be Moroz, because Moroz placed third in the first tour. However, since Moroz has firmly placed himself in Yuschenko's camp, it would seem unlikely that he will pick up the mantle to run against Yuschenko. Unless he does so only to encourage voters to support Yuschenko in the election. If Moroz withdraws, Yuschenko's opponent will be Petro Symonenko, the communist."

Victor Katolyk at The Periscope: "Yanukovych can withdraw. However, if he withdraws less than 20 days before the run-off, Yushchenko will be the only candidate in the list. In this case, he will have to get more than 'I don't support any candidate' votes."

A Fistful of Euros: "outgoing President Kuchma vetoed the recently passed law invalidating “absentee ballots” for the re-run. These ballots allowed Ukrainians to vote in other than their home districts, and were, according to numerous reports by international observers, one of the main instruments of electoral fraud in the initial run-off." (Oh, and by the way, vote for Fistful!)

Daniel Drezner: " What's becoming clear is that the correlation of forces within Ukraine are tilting in favor of a runoff election that would presumably lift Viktor Yushchenko to power. The emerging question is whether the correlation of forces outside Ukraine will permit this to happen. Will Putin tolerate the blow to his reputation that would come with a Yushchenko victory?"

By the looks of things it's all still rather up in the air...

7 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi,
"dodgy tactics" - Yanukovych may decide not to participate in run off election, Rada voted to withdraw troops from Iraq (which had been an opposition campaign promise) which may upset Poland because they command the Uki troops in Iraq, and proposes to vote on political reform.

12/03/2004 07:18:00 pm  
Blogger Nosemonkey said...

I think you must have posted that just as I was updating - thanks!

12/03/2004 07:42:00 pm  
Blogger TulipGirl said...

"Let's just hope that they can ensure that no dodgy tactics come into play again. A vast fleet of international observers will be vital - preferably from impartial countries (i.e. not the US, EU or Russia). How about Japanese election-watchers? That'd do the trick."Just for the record, I want to mention that in my circle of American friends here, five were election observers and each of them handled things very professionally and carefully. Take Dan McMinn at Orange Ukraine for instance. He's already opted himself out of the next round because of his current political involvement, but he was objective and professional in the first two rounds.

Just saying. . . I think the more international observers and strict guidelines the better for helping there be an honest outcome for the re-vote.

12/03/2004 08:40:00 pm  
Blogger Nosemonkey said...

I have no doubt EU and US (and Russian, for that matter) observers would do a thoroughly professional job. It's more from the PR point of view.

One story of a Russian official seeming to turn a blind eye to dodgy tactics, and the whole thing could explode again; one story of a US or EU observer doing the same, they will be accused of double standards.

PR - that's all...

12/03/2004 08:58:00 pm  
Blogger Churl said...

But what happens if Yuschenko loses again?

12/04/2004 12:25:00 am  
Blogger Nosemonkey said...

That's precisely my worry. I don't know quite what to make of Yushchenko yet. If he truly believes that his way is best - and believes it enough (and has enough charisma) to get tens of thousands of protestors to stand out in the freezing cold with him for two weeks - is he going to accept a result he doesn't like? I dunno...

The thing with Yushchenko is that he evidently learned his lesson from Al Gore in 2000 - don't concede until there's no hope left. I don't know whether he'll lbe able to learn from John Kerry as well, and know when to throw in the towel. If he ends up looking like a sore loser, it could do even more hard to Ukraine's chances of building a lasting democracy than Yanukovych's vote-rigging.

12/04/2004 01:23:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

this guy seems to have it right - a slushy mess.

http://www.s95451559.onlinehome.us/

12/06/2004 06:45:00 am  

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